Stop Enabling Pakistan’s Dangerous Dysfunction September 6, 2011 George Perkovich is an paper that appeared at http://carnegieendowment.org/files/pakistan_dysfunction.pdf
I feel that the analysis is wrong and if accepted by US Government will have disasterous consequences for India and United States. So I analysed the article and a reply in slightly humerous vein is being put here.
an analysis and a reply
I am looking at Mr. Perkovich’s article from India’s point of view. Of course I am not an “expert” as Mr. Perkovich is so I may be pardoned of my naiveté. In this paper, Mr. Perkovich seems to be stating that Pakistan is dangerously dysfunctional and seems to imply that it is the duty of United States to rescue Pakistan and that India should foot the bill. He prefaces this by calling Pakistan as “this strategically important country”. He also seems to imply that it is the duty of United States to help and in that process should mulct India with the costs. I beg to disagree with this stand and unless this is a case of “good cop- bad cop” routine between Perkovich and Tellis a very dangerous hypothesis as I will demonstrate hereafter.
Let us look at US interests in Pakistan. They are not what Mr. Perkovich says they are. The central interest as seen by India and Indians was a point of influence at the underbelly of USSR as it then was, during the cold war era AND a tool to control and influence India, which the United States has always understood to be a sleeping elephant. They always wanted a tool to threaten India with. Pakistan fitted the bill very well. During the pre Nixon period Pakistan was also a tool against China.
United States knows it controls the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, if at all it is a credible one. So controlling that arsenal is a mere camouflage. Further, who were the people supporting and nurturing Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions? It was United States and United States alone and it was United States that allowed and encouraged China to violate all treaties and supply nuclear technology and missile technology to China. I will not dwell too much on the American actions but will list what I think is correct.
In the 1970s after the PNE India had made no further action towards weaponizing the technology. Pakistan was hell bent on getting the technology and having a nuclear weapon to threaten India and that had the support of CIA and thereby indicating US Government encouragement. “Dr A.Q. Khan was arrested in 1975 for espionage and in 1988 for illegal entry into Holland. On both occasions he was allowed to go scot-free because of the CIA’s intervention ”. In fact the process of obfuscation started simultaneously so that the US aid in the matter is covered up. I refer to Carter era documents that were made to indicate that it was only “belatedly” that CIA and State Department became “aware” of Pakistani plans. BUT why did CIA intervene in 1975 when Khan was arrested in Holland. If National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 333 is to be believed, why did CIA again intervene in favor of Khan in 1988 TEN YEARS after the US became aware of Khan’s involvement? Something does not gel. So at that point 1975 onwards the US wanted a knife to threaten India with and were forging one. Are we to believe that United States was unaware of the dangers involved and had no contingency plan to control the nuclear weapons produced? I doubt. Of course, there is a possibility that the proxy set up by United States – the Peoples Republic of China – may have gone rouge. If that had happened, I do not think India should be penalised for that. It is a planning error of United States based on faulty analysis.
In 1979 India DID NOT have a nuclear weapons program. Pakistan had, as indicated by the application of the Symington Amendment to Pakistan. In fact it is well known that from 1983 to 1994, around 24 cold tests were carried out by Pakistan. The 1990 test at Lop Nor is also well known. So what was United States doing at that time? It is true that the toppling of Soviet Union was foremost in the mind of United States and because of that they actively helped Pakistan in the process including periodic certifications to avoid sanctions. It is my view that this action, without any gaming of future scenarios by United States, is responsible for the difficult nuclear situation in Pakistan and again it is my view that India should not be and cannot be penalized for the problems created by short sighted policy advisers of United States.
Mr. Perkovich seems to be oblivious about the proliferation history of Pakistan . The United States really did NOTHING to stop it.
The next “interest” cited by Mr. Perkovich is prevention of war between India and Pakistan. Here, again Mr. Perkovich is wrong. Let us first look at the possibility of who will initiate war. Let’s look at the bare facts. India has never started any action. India has up to date gone out of the way to accommodate Pakistan. This is NOT at the persuasion of United States but because the political leadership feels it is not correct. Unlike United States, India’s foreign policy is dictated by principles. The US policy is dictated by expediency. That is where United States fails. How can Pakistan start the war unless United States arms Pakistan? Anyone with common sense knows the F-16s and other heavy weapons being given can be used only against India. Yet United States “donates” these. Forging the knife again? Is India to be penalized for the possibility of war brought about by the actions of United States? The answer has to be an emphatic NO!! Let me make it very clear, Pakistan is a Feudal Society where the common man counts for NOTHING. All the elites of Pakistan have large investments and residences in the West. If there is war, they will just shift out and the west, including United States is waiting ready to accommodate them. Instead of penalizing India for any misadventure from Western armed Pakistan, all that is needed is to tell Pakistan that any misadventure means loss of refuge in the west and loss of investments in the West. Will United States do that, at least privately? Then the threat of war will become miniscule. But will it? With the type of advisers that seem to be there the chances look slim.
Now let us take the issue of counterterrorism.
Some people have a habit of complicating simple issues. In dealing with Pakistan one has to know the country and its culture. If that is known, things MAY become simpler. As an Indian I can understand the situation, maybe, a little bit better.
Let me state the basic premises.
1. Pakistan has to always treat India as “enemy” because if that is not done, the very raison d’être of Pakistan fails.
2. If we just give away the whole of Kashmir tomorrow along with the millions of Hindus and Buddhists in Jammu and Ladakh (as seems to be the desire of Mr. Perkovich) the only sure thing that will happen is the genocide of the Hindus and Buddhists. The hostility will not cease and a new cause will be found, because, otherwise the very idea of Pakistan collapses.
3. The Pakistani feudal ruling class bereft of safe havens in the West will fall in line in a nano second to a peaceful settlement.
4. The West and people like Perkovichs, Christine Fairs and Robin Raphels have dealt with only the feudal and know nothing of the ordinary Abdul in the street. They cannot be changed by forcing India to give away Kashmir (with the consequent genocide), arming Pakistan against India, or other ideas that affect only the Feudals.
5. These analists should stop talking about the Honor and Dignity that is touted out by Pakistanis whenever they meet western officials. There will be no recourse to all that if they are told that the feudal and their progeny in the West will be sent back and their investments confiscated.
What has to be done is first to tame the feudals and then create a program of education, where the great harm done by the Islamization from the period of Zia-Ul-Haq. The influence of Islamic education has to be reduced and the true nature of Islam should be brought about. The base premises will give the tools to do that. This will take at least 50 years.
The Pakistan army should be dismantled under a United Nations guaranteed program. India can and will demilitarize its borders with Pakistan with only enough security to prevent infiltration. India desires peace but not at American terms. The terms that Perkovich and Company propose will never be accepted. We did not accept it when we were weak, do they for a moment think we will accept it when we are gaining strength. We are a peaceful civilization and the older people who were in awe of the white skin are dying off. Once they go off even this peaceful attitude is likely to change.
Then comes the issue of inducing Pakistan’s cooperation in stabilizing Afghanistan. I fail to understand why United States need any such cooperation. Once the army is neutered and feudals are told their place, the cooperation will be there in no time. It is also necessary that the FATA and other Pashtun areas need to be rejoined with Afghanistan. Then the Afghan army with the help of Indian army will quell all rebellion and terrorist activities there. In fact the Pashtun fierceness is a myth created by the British because they were unable to understand or tame the Pashtuns. Maharaja Renjith Singh did control the area and it was peaceful. The effect of his control is still visible for all to see. The Salwar Kamiz worn by the Pashtuns come from an era when General Hari Singh Nalwa declared that Pashtuns are not men so should wear women’s clothing. They still wear it and frighten their children saying “Nalwa will come” when they create too much trouble. This is anecdotal and is a peep into the Pashtun psyche.
Now let’s take the issue of “fostering development and democratization”. Without land reforms act and breaking up of the feudal system, nothing can be done towards “fostering development and democratization”. It is my considered view that the time has not come for that because of the radicalization of Pakistani masses post Zia-ul-haq era. The effects of the islamization have to be neutralized before the common Abdul in the street is empowered. If not, there will be chaos and extremism far beyond what we have now.
So it can be seen that the issue does not boil down to “the security of Pakistanis”. If the United States really wants to help Pakistan it should stop arming it and see to it that its military culture is destroyed and real developmental work taken up.
Now I will take up the points raised by Mr. Perkovich in seriatim. He says “If Pakistanis are more justly governed, more educated, more employed, and therefore more able to define and pursue a constructive national identity and interest, they will expunge terrorists to secure themselves.”
What are the ingredients of the statement?
1. Pakistanis must be justly Governed; 2. More educated 3. More employed; 4. They must pursue a constructive national identity and interest.
To be justly governed, the feudal system must be destroyed. BUT destroying it NOW will give the common abdul a power it does not know how to handle. There will be utter chaos. This event can take place only when the mullahs’ hold on the populace is destroys and the non violent form of Islam is taught; they must be taught that Gazawah-e-hind is a myth. That they are a separate nation and all dreams of the green flag flying atop Red Fort is impossibility. They must be told and made to realize that they are a small country that will disappear if India so much a sneezes; their soldiers are just like Indian soldiers and are not Tall Fair supermen. NOTHING will be gained by making India give concessions. It will feed myths making Pakistanis want more. The attempt to make India concede too much will result in hostility that will put back Indo-US relations many years. What US will lose is more than what US will gain by mollycoddling Pakistan. The advice is not in the interests of United States at all.
Once the just governance starts and the madrassa system sponsored by Saudi Arabia is dismantled right education can start. There US aid will be vital. Once there is right education the right employment will follow and once they realize they are NOT going to rule India – ever – and they realize the reality they will think of constructive identity and national interest.
I agree with Perkovich when he says: - “For decades that posture has had the unintended but undeniable effect of empowering Pakistan’s grossly oversized and hyperactive military and intelligence services at the expense of the country’s civil society and progress toward effective governance. Washington’s collusion with the Pakistani security establishment has amounted to enablement—the indulgence and augmentation of a friend’s self-destructive outlook and actions. To stop doing harm, the United States would first have to give up the illusion that it can change the Pakistani military’s mindset, and stop offering money to do so. It would have to pause and then redesign a large aid program so hamstrung by anti-corruption and security measures that it antagonizes recipients and seems designed to fail. It would mean removing barriers to Pakistani imports into the United States” BUT I disagree with the last part where he says “ and, not least, undertaking determined efforts to correct the impression that Pakistani interests and lives mean less to the United States than Indian interests and lives.” Has not the United States long ago given up equating India and Pakistan? Pakistan has to be told the ground reality that India is NOT equal to Pakistan. The interests are not and cannot be equal. Lives ARE equal everywhere. The impression Indians have is that United States think Indian lives are cheap and expendable at the altar of US interests. The persuation that was made to prevent our reacting to our 9/11. Why Mr. Perkovich? We need not elaborate on Headly and Rana. We all know what the truth is and what is said publicly. Are you suggesting degrading of relationship with India to prove the equal-equal? Do you really think it will be in America’s interest? Please understand that India and Indians are resurgent now and barring a nuclear war we are on the way up and any equalization will bring hostility far beyond what the short term thinking of USA can envisage. Please study history. We may agree or keep silent so as not to offend but we know what to do and remember “an elephant rarely forgets”. Remember a younger generation is taking charge.
First Tragedy, Then Farce: The U.S. Role in Pakistan
The history enunciated here on the US and Pakistani actions and intentions are fairly accurate. Suffice it to add that United States was taken for a ride by Pakistan because of the shortsightedness of its policies. The effect of arming Pakistan to fight India was not factored in. Maybe it has a racist tinge? A thought that Indians will not react? My dear Mr. Perkovich, we may be slow to react, like an elephant, but the reaction will come one day. Then United States may not like it. Whether anybody likes it or not, the days of United States are ending and India’s is just starting. We are going to achieve our rightful place at the helm of affairs that we held pre 14th century. So a long term view and helping India avert a possible nuclear attack by some mad men will help United States balance China using India. Pakistan can be used to balance no one. Not in another 50 years. We are a principled Nation that will stand by commitments unlike others.
I agree with Mr. Perkovich when he says “the United States chose the expediency of depending on the double-gaming Pakistani army over its recognition that the army’s obsession with India and determination to control Pakistani politics and budgets were leading to the sort of internal crisis that the country now faces”. It is this expediency approach that is the bane of US policymaking. The story of US aid is like providing food and not the skill to earn food. The US preferred and nurtured dictators, right up to Musharaff. I do not think the US did anything towards bringing democracy other than paying lip service. The economic growth because of aid was a chimera and I am sure United States knew that and is supported by the quotes in this article. It is also pertinent to remember that Balochistan, Sindh and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir are mere colonial areas to be exploited by the Punjabi feudals. In this context I am most gratified to note that Mr. Perkovich does not treat Pakistan occupied Kashmir as part of Pakistan. A democratic way has been considered in “blood borders” A merciful euthanasia as mentioned in that article will be the right way forward instead of trying out crackpot ideas like treating two dissimilar nations in area, population, wealth, culture and ethos equally.
It would be nice if Mr. Perkovich remembers a beggar that aims a gun at its own temple and begging will not shoot itself. The safety valve is the threat to the elites’ progeny in the west and their property.
An Enemy Is Not Enough To Make a Nation
Let us correct a misgiving in the light of our knowledge now. (a) There may have been mistakes committed. BUT 1987 elections had NOTHING to do with the uprising that started then. It was a proxy war by Pakistan. Anyway that’s a long dead event. What is the present situation is what counts and Mr. Perkovich seems to avoid that. What are the popular feelings? So what is it that Mr. Perkovich is suggesting? Make a people of which only 2% talk of joining Pakistan be made to join Pakistan? Pray, where is the democracy now? Is it something that can conveniently avoided for an idea with no basis and no chance of success?
Obsessions Are Not Easily Cured
I am sorry Mr. Perkovich, but I must take you on fairly and squarely here. How can you, a learned analyst say that India has “pretensions of superiority”? The factors of superiority are there for all to see. If you meant that this is Pakistan’s view then it is correct. But if it was YOUR observation, it is unfortunate. Same thing applies to the mention of maltreatment of Kashmiris. If in this paragraph you are saying that it is paranoia on the part of Pakistan, the remedy is not to belittle India to bring about an equality paradigm that has no base in reality but to take Pakistanis to a psychiatrist (there are many ways to do that). A country like United States should not be party to a charade that has no reality as base.
Mr. Perkovich says “Deeper sources also fuel the security establishment’s obsession with India. As Pervez Hoodbhoy and Zia Mian have written, there is nostalgia “for a time when Muslims ruled India and were carriers of a great civilization.” There is frustration over the failure to fulfill the hopes of creating a singular national identity and a progressive modern state that were the promise of Pakistan’s creation. India’s recent steady rise as a world power presents a tormenting comparison for Pakistan’s establishment.” For this frustration should India be made to pay? Is that what is being said. They should be told that their way forward is to change. Change for the better. Change the education system; Stop this over emphasis on religion and jihad; move forward to 21st Century from the 7th century to which your mullah-military complex has condemned them to.
The quote from Diplomat and journalist Maleeha Lohdi amply explains what I stated above. If that be so what is the remedy? To make India look bad or beat India? Rather silly is it not? The remedy is to get the people to apsychiatrist and get them treated by removing mullah and jihad and educating them, telling them the truth and making them understand their real place in the scheme of things. Tell them the myths are just myths.
It is true that “the army, has done too little to redress domestic injustices, economic failure, and poor governance.” So what should India do for that? Get beaten up and pressurized to do things that will be liked by a nation of psychotics?
Can Washington Learn?
I fully agree with Mr Perkovich when he says “If Washington is smart, it will stop enabling the Pakistani security establishment’s dysfunctional domination of state and society and truly help Pakistanis who increasingly realize that the source of their ills is internal. To do this, the administration and Congress must accept the bountiful evidence that behaviorist policies of incentives and punishments will not change the army’s psychology and actions. The army’s and ISI’s obsessions are too neurotic to be affected by American techniques of behavior modification. And it would be exceedingly dangerous for anyone to seek to defeat the army and ISI in war.”
I also agree with the statement “The only constructive alternative is democratization. The creation and protection of space for people and groups who offer a more positive identity for Pakistan could enable them to dislodge less constructive actors and reform the state’s mission and actions. The military’s psychology and exploits have put the country into a tailspin from which democratization offers the only rescue.”
What Can Be Done?
I agree that the democratization should be really gradual so that the Abdul in the street is not empowered too fast. BUT before even thinking of that, the Mullah Military combine should be dismantled. Even splitting of the State into different units line independent Sindh and Balochistan must be thought of. All heavy weapons must be removed from the country.
Stop Pushing and Funding the Pakistan Army to Fight America’s Battles
Mr. Perkovich says “The United States would accomplish more by encouraging the Pakistani security establishment to concentrate on defending the people of Pakistan from violence and ensuring that their constitutional and civil rights are protected.” With or without encouragement the military-politician-mullah complex is NOT interested in protecting any one or their rights but their own. It is inconceivable how Mr. Perkovich who has travelled extensively in Pakistan thinks otherwise.
I disagree with the view of the author that “the United States would be wise to continue to make financial and other resources available for the army, the ISI, and the police to contest the operation and recruitment of violent extremists in the country. Such assistance would need to actually be tied to performance, which thus far has not been the case.” What arms is he talking about? Artillery? MBRLs, Frigates? Planes? These are what will be asked for and given FREE of course part of the expenses will be recovered from the sales to India. These will not be useful for the purpose that’s being suggested.
Stop Blocking Pakistani Imports
It would be nice to have imports from Pakistan. India will also help. BUT that needs a guarantee of no terror attacks. And an era of peace in Pakistan. That will not happen in the near future and hence the suggestion is a non-starter.
Stop Over-Indulging India
Ah here comes the crux. Like Christine Fair and Robin Raphael Perkovich seems to have been well treated by Pakistanis. It is natural and necessary for United States to develop relations with India well on the way to be at par with USA economically and even militarily. It is necessary that there be amity and convergence of interest between India and USA in the emerging scenario vis-à-vis China. Mr. Perkovich wants to be India to be “sensitive”!! How is left unsaid. So Pakistan has to be treated so while the treatment is on if it lashes out India should bear it? Under man Mohan Singh that may happen. The reasons being obvious. If a younger more vibrant person who is not constrained by “coalition and other compulsions” come to power maybe it will not happen. BTW what sensitivity did United states show when 9/11 occurred. Even without proof Afghanistan was attacked (I am not saying it was wrong, in fact I applaud it) Give India also the same rights please?
Mr. Perkovich seems to talk about Samjhauta express killing based on a Hindu = Muslim trick played by government of India. But really we all know who did it and why it is not being pursued and under whose persuation. Mr. Perkovich is concerned about 42 Pakistanis killed. Has he no concern for the 1000s of Hindu KASHMIRI PANDITS raped killed and ethnically cleansed from Kashmir valley? Or is that part of the sensitivity that is being demanded by Mr. Perkovich? Is Mr. Perkovich forgetting the “unfortunate loss” of evidence by FBI of the first Bombay blasts? ONE incident is all he has to talk about!! What about the 100s of terrorist attacks orchestrated by ISI that has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths? Not relevant? So 42 = tens of thousands in Perkovich’s mind? Is that the equal value he is talking about? So which way falls the disparity?
Then we deal with two pet theories that our dear Mr. Perkovich also falls prey to. One is the destruction of Babari destruction. A building where prayers have not been held ever since 1934 with a FUNCTIONING temple inside was destroyed. I hope Perkovich does not keep quoting what he head in Karachi and in Slummabad. There was no mosque and even if the building was with muslims they never could hold prayers there as it is forbidden under the Holy Quoran. So the muslims should have gracefully given back the building. As for the case, it is being prosecuted in accordance with Indian law. Mr. Perkovich maynot know we have a system that’s substantially different from American systems. So there will be delays.
Ahhhh Gujarat!! Very very important!! I hope Mr. Perkovich remembers how it all started? Who provoked? He maynot be aware that there are cases being prosecuted at the highest judicial forum of India on the issue and sooner or later the guilty, if any, will be punished. Of course conduct of the 26/11 prosecutions in Pakistan has been very exemplary I hope?
There is a saying “beware of the anger of the patient man” that’s all I have to tell Mr. Perkovich on this. Of course Mr. Perkovich, India has its imperfections just as US and UK and every other nation has. No one is blind to these. Oh!! I did not know it was businesses and traders who should call nations to account. Is that so in united States Mr. Perkovich? I did not know. I have not seen traders going up to the President of United States to discuss matters of State policy.
What is the recent uprising you are talking about Mr. Perkovich? The stone throwing? You know and I know who pays for the stone throwers . Don’t we? And yet we forgive them . What more is needed? Ohhhhhhhhhhh I forgot the so called “intifada” is by 2% of the population. If more than 2% of the US population may want to scede from the United States, what will US Government do? So what should the US Government do? Grant visas to the 2% You are welcome and face the consequences. There will be more Times Square Bombers. While at it let me explain how India is “disregarding the rights and well-being of Kashmiri Muslims” – selling provisions, victuals and utilities in 1940s prices. Free education, minimum taxes, their own laws. How many states in a fedation have all their needs subsidized and maintained? The Kashmiris in POK on the other hand face discrimination but I am sure my friend has not gone there. And TWO PERCENT want to join Pakistan. So what about the desire of the majority? Expendable what?
BTW try upbraiding us!! We will upbraid you also on many a thing. Stop being superiority minded please? Oh. Show solidarity with TWO PERCENT? SO what will the rest NINTY EIGHT PERCENT do? BTW we are NOT buying fighting machines from you. We know all about Trojans and backdoors. India has NOT and WILL NOT exploit the Baloch and Sindh issues as of now. I cannot say what will happen when there is a stronger Government in place. Then things will change unless Pakistan changes now with or without US persuasion. How can we prove the negative? I do not know. It is unknown in jurisprudence.
“This was demonstrated in the energetic American diplomacy to persuade India not to respond militarily to terrorist attacks emanating from Pakistan in 2001 and 2008, and India’s concurrence in that position.” Yes Mr. Perkovich. Please ponder what US did what India did. The difference is obvious. No we did not desist because of fear of US. We did it because we were looking at long term gain and not short term political gain. If “rational perception and analysis are not what drive the Pakistani security establishment’s attitude toward India and U.S” what can we do? We have a saying “There is no use reciting Vedas in the ear of an attacking wild buffalo”. That has to be and will be dealt with appropriately.
Do we really need military means from United States? It is exactly because of CISMOSA and EUA and possible Trojans and backdoors that we do not accept fighting supplies from you. So Pakistan has no need to fear and that’s why there is no need for fear on Pakistan’s side. So US assessments and publications are NOT needed. BUT please stop the FREE Supply of lethal arms to Pakistan. That alone will improve the security scenario all round. It will be good for US also because otherwise this critically ill patient may very well lash out at USA also maybe with not so nice bombs. Then I will be watching to see the understanding approach US will take against Pakistan.
Mr. Perkovich is absolutely right in saying “The United States has never had much sway over Indian policies and it will not gain more as India’s wealth and power grow”. As for what to do in Kashmir we are doing all that need to be done there. I doubt whether we need US’s special ability to “identify” steps. All that is needed for peace in South Asia is stoppage of military patronage by FREE SUPPLY of lethal armaments by anybody here. That step alone will help. We have identified that step for United States so that at a later point of time United States is not at the receiving end of the very same arms.
Oh Please do tell us when we are abusive to ANYONE. Non constructiveness is a matter of perception n’est ce pas? As for speaking the truth, are you telling us normally you do not?
Pause and Reinvent U.S. Assistance
Yes there must be a pause to free supply of lethal armaments for use against India. So the Pakistanis are telling Perkovich to persuade the US Government to just pay the money and let us divide it among us. A nice idea. That will alleviate all the problems because the money will be invested in the west itself.
Yes yes the best agency that you can probably suggest is Jamaat-ud-dawa? They will administer the aid really properly and efficiently and the people will benefit too. It will help reduce the population also by pushing lots of people to india from where they will not return. Double benefit.
Conclusion
Stop all military aid to Pakistan. Prepare a list of the progeny of feudals in the west, and their assets. Demand dismantling of the Pakistan army. Remove all heavy weapons from the country. REQUEST India to give an undertaking that it will not invade the country except for police action in the event of terrorist incursions. Dismantle all Maddrassas. Remove all Mullahs to a “safe haven”. Start proper schools where REAL history is taught. Remove all weapons except in the hands of the police and there will be peace all round.
I feel that the analysis is wrong and if accepted by US Government will have disasterous consequences for India and United States. So I analysed the article and a reply in slightly humerous vein is being put here.
an analysis and a reply
I am looking at Mr. Perkovich’s article from India’s point of view. Of course I am not an “expert” as Mr. Perkovich is so I may be pardoned of my naiveté. In this paper, Mr. Perkovich seems to be stating that Pakistan is dangerously dysfunctional and seems to imply that it is the duty of United States to rescue Pakistan and that India should foot the bill. He prefaces this by calling Pakistan as “this strategically important country”. He also seems to imply that it is the duty of United States to help and in that process should mulct India with the costs. I beg to disagree with this stand and unless this is a case of “good cop- bad cop” routine between Perkovich and Tellis a very dangerous hypothesis as I will demonstrate hereafter.
Let us look at US interests in Pakistan. They are not what Mr. Perkovich says they are. The central interest as seen by India and Indians was a point of influence at the underbelly of USSR as it then was, during the cold war era AND a tool to control and influence India, which the United States has always understood to be a sleeping elephant. They always wanted a tool to threaten India with. Pakistan fitted the bill very well. During the pre Nixon period Pakistan was also a tool against China.
United States knows it controls the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, if at all it is a credible one. So controlling that arsenal is a mere camouflage. Further, who were the people supporting and nurturing Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions? It was United States and United States alone and it was United States that allowed and encouraged China to violate all treaties and supply nuclear technology and missile technology to China. I will not dwell too much on the American actions but will list what I think is correct.
In the 1970s after the PNE India had made no further action towards weaponizing the technology. Pakistan was hell bent on getting the technology and having a nuclear weapon to threaten India and that had the support of CIA and thereby indicating US Government encouragement. “Dr A.Q. Khan was arrested in 1975 for espionage and in 1988 for illegal entry into Holland. On both occasions he was allowed to go scot-free because of the CIA’s intervention ”. In fact the process of obfuscation started simultaneously so that the US aid in the matter is covered up. I refer to Carter era documents that were made to indicate that it was only “belatedly” that CIA and State Department became “aware” of Pakistani plans. BUT why did CIA intervene in 1975 when Khan was arrested in Holland. If National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 333 is to be believed, why did CIA again intervene in favor of Khan in 1988 TEN YEARS after the US became aware of Khan’s involvement? Something does not gel. So at that point 1975 onwards the US wanted a knife to threaten India with and were forging one. Are we to believe that United States was unaware of the dangers involved and had no contingency plan to control the nuclear weapons produced? I doubt. Of course, there is a possibility that the proxy set up by United States – the Peoples Republic of China – may have gone rouge. If that had happened, I do not think India should be penalised for that. It is a planning error of United States based on faulty analysis.
In 1979 India DID NOT have a nuclear weapons program. Pakistan had, as indicated by the application of the Symington Amendment to Pakistan. In fact it is well known that from 1983 to 1994, around 24 cold tests were carried out by Pakistan. The 1990 test at Lop Nor is also well known. So what was United States doing at that time? It is true that the toppling of Soviet Union was foremost in the mind of United States and because of that they actively helped Pakistan in the process including periodic certifications to avoid sanctions. It is my view that this action, without any gaming of future scenarios by United States, is responsible for the difficult nuclear situation in Pakistan and again it is my view that India should not be and cannot be penalized for the problems created by short sighted policy advisers of United States.
Mr. Perkovich seems to be oblivious about the proliferation history of Pakistan . The United States really did NOTHING to stop it.
The next “interest” cited by Mr. Perkovich is prevention of war between India and Pakistan. Here, again Mr. Perkovich is wrong. Let us first look at the possibility of who will initiate war. Let’s look at the bare facts. India has never started any action. India has up to date gone out of the way to accommodate Pakistan. This is NOT at the persuasion of United States but because the political leadership feels it is not correct. Unlike United States, India’s foreign policy is dictated by principles. The US policy is dictated by expediency. That is where United States fails. How can Pakistan start the war unless United States arms Pakistan? Anyone with common sense knows the F-16s and other heavy weapons being given can be used only against India. Yet United States “donates” these. Forging the knife again? Is India to be penalized for the possibility of war brought about by the actions of United States? The answer has to be an emphatic NO!! Let me make it very clear, Pakistan is a Feudal Society where the common man counts for NOTHING. All the elites of Pakistan have large investments and residences in the West. If there is war, they will just shift out and the west, including United States is waiting ready to accommodate them. Instead of penalizing India for any misadventure from Western armed Pakistan, all that is needed is to tell Pakistan that any misadventure means loss of refuge in the west and loss of investments in the West. Will United States do that, at least privately? Then the threat of war will become miniscule. But will it? With the type of advisers that seem to be there the chances look slim.
Now let us take the issue of counterterrorism.
Some people have a habit of complicating simple issues. In dealing with Pakistan one has to know the country and its culture. If that is known, things MAY become simpler. As an Indian I can understand the situation, maybe, a little bit better.
Let me state the basic premises.
1. Pakistan has to always treat India as “enemy” because if that is not done, the very raison d’être of Pakistan fails.
2. If we just give away the whole of Kashmir tomorrow along with the millions of Hindus and Buddhists in Jammu and Ladakh (as seems to be the desire of Mr. Perkovich) the only sure thing that will happen is the genocide of the Hindus and Buddhists. The hostility will not cease and a new cause will be found, because, otherwise the very idea of Pakistan collapses.
3. The Pakistani feudal ruling class bereft of safe havens in the West will fall in line in a nano second to a peaceful settlement.
4. The West and people like Perkovichs, Christine Fairs and Robin Raphels have dealt with only the feudal and know nothing of the ordinary Abdul in the street. They cannot be changed by forcing India to give away Kashmir (with the consequent genocide), arming Pakistan against India, or other ideas that affect only the Feudals.
5. These analists should stop talking about the Honor and Dignity that is touted out by Pakistanis whenever they meet western officials. There will be no recourse to all that if they are told that the feudal and their progeny in the West will be sent back and their investments confiscated.
What has to be done is first to tame the feudals and then create a program of education, where the great harm done by the Islamization from the period of Zia-Ul-Haq. The influence of Islamic education has to be reduced and the true nature of Islam should be brought about. The base premises will give the tools to do that. This will take at least 50 years.
The Pakistan army should be dismantled under a United Nations guaranteed program. India can and will demilitarize its borders with Pakistan with only enough security to prevent infiltration. India desires peace but not at American terms. The terms that Perkovich and Company propose will never be accepted. We did not accept it when we were weak, do they for a moment think we will accept it when we are gaining strength. We are a peaceful civilization and the older people who were in awe of the white skin are dying off. Once they go off even this peaceful attitude is likely to change.
Then comes the issue of inducing Pakistan’s cooperation in stabilizing Afghanistan. I fail to understand why United States need any such cooperation. Once the army is neutered and feudals are told their place, the cooperation will be there in no time. It is also necessary that the FATA and other Pashtun areas need to be rejoined with Afghanistan. Then the Afghan army with the help of Indian army will quell all rebellion and terrorist activities there. In fact the Pashtun fierceness is a myth created by the British because they were unable to understand or tame the Pashtuns. Maharaja Renjith Singh did control the area and it was peaceful. The effect of his control is still visible for all to see. The Salwar Kamiz worn by the Pashtuns come from an era when General Hari Singh Nalwa declared that Pashtuns are not men so should wear women’s clothing. They still wear it and frighten their children saying “Nalwa will come” when they create too much trouble. This is anecdotal and is a peep into the Pashtun psyche.
Now let’s take the issue of “fostering development and democratization”. Without land reforms act and breaking up of the feudal system, nothing can be done towards “fostering development and democratization”. It is my considered view that the time has not come for that because of the radicalization of Pakistani masses post Zia-ul-haq era. The effects of the islamization have to be neutralized before the common Abdul in the street is empowered. If not, there will be chaos and extremism far beyond what we have now.
So it can be seen that the issue does not boil down to “the security of Pakistanis”. If the United States really wants to help Pakistan it should stop arming it and see to it that its military culture is destroyed and real developmental work taken up.
Now I will take up the points raised by Mr. Perkovich in seriatim. He says “If Pakistanis are more justly governed, more educated, more employed, and therefore more able to define and pursue a constructive national identity and interest, they will expunge terrorists to secure themselves.”
What are the ingredients of the statement?
1. Pakistanis must be justly Governed; 2. More educated 3. More employed; 4. They must pursue a constructive national identity and interest.
To be justly governed, the feudal system must be destroyed. BUT destroying it NOW will give the common abdul a power it does not know how to handle. There will be utter chaos. This event can take place only when the mullahs’ hold on the populace is destroys and the non violent form of Islam is taught; they must be taught that Gazawah-e-hind is a myth. That they are a separate nation and all dreams of the green flag flying atop Red Fort is impossibility. They must be told and made to realize that they are a small country that will disappear if India so much a sneezes; their soldiers are just like Indian soldiers and are not Tall Fair supermen. NOTHING will be gained by making India give concessions. It will feed myths making Pakistanis want more. The attempt to make India concede too much will result in hostility that will put back Indo-US relations many years. What US will lose is more than what US will gain by mollycoddling Pakistan. The advice is not in the interests of United States at all.
Once the just governance starts and the madrassa system sponsored by Saudi Arabia is dismantled right education can start. There US aid will be vital. Once there is right education the right employment will follow and once they realize they are NOT going to rule India – ever – and they realize the reality they will think of constructive identity and national interest.
I agree with Perkovich when he says: - “For decades that posture has had the unintended but undeniable effect of empowering Pakistan’s grossly oversized and hyperactive military and intelligence services at the expense of the country’s civil society and progress toward effective governance. Washington’s collusion with the Pakistani security establishment has amounted to enablement—the indulgence and augmentation of a friend’s self-destructive outlook and actions. To stop doing harm, the United States would first have to give up the illusion that it can change the Pakistani military’s mindset, and stop offering money to do so. It would have to pause and then redesign a large aid program so hamstrung by anti-corruption and security measures that it antagonizes recipients and seems designed to fail. It would mean removing barriers to Pakistani imports into the United States” BUT I disagree with the last part where he says “ and, not least, undertaking determined efforts to correct the impression that Pakistani interests and lives mean less to the United States than Indian interests and lives.” Has not the United States long ago given up equating India and Pakistan? Pakistan has to be told the ground reality that India is NOT equal to Pakistan. The interests are not and cannot be equal. Lives ARE equal everywhere. The impression Indians have is that United States think Indian lives are cheap and expendable at the altar of US interests. The persuation that was made to prevent our reacting to our 9/11. Why Mr. Perkovich? We need not elaborate on Headly and Rana. We all know what the truth is and what is said publicly. Are you suggesting degrading of relationship with India to prove the equal-equal? Do you really think it will be in America’s interest? Please understand that India and Indians are resurgent now and barring a nuclear war we are on the way up and any equalization will bring hostility far beyond what the short term thinking of USA can envisage. Please study history. We may agree or keep silent so as not to offend but we know what to do and remember “an elephant rarely forgets”. Remember a younger generation is taking charge.
First Tragedy, Then Farce: The U.S. Role in Pakistan
The history enunciated here on the US and Pakistani actions and intentions are fairly accurate. Suffice it to add that United States was taken for a ride by Pakistan because of the shortsightedness of its policies. The effect of arming Pakistan to fight India was not factored in. Maybe it has a racist tinge? A thought that Indians will not react? My dear Mr. Perkovich, we may be slow to react, like an elephant, but the reaction will come one day. Then United States may not like it. Whether anybody likes it or not, the days of United States are ending and India’s is just starting. We are going to achieve our rightful place at the helm of affairs that we held pre 14th century. So a long term view and helping India avert a possible nuclear attack by some mad men will help United States balance China using India. Pakistan can be used to balance no one. Not in another 50 years. We are a principled Nation that will stand by commitments unlike others.
I agree with Mr. Perkovich when he says “the United States chose the expediency of depending on the double-gaming Pakistani army over its recognition that the army’s obsession with India and determination to control Pakistani politics and budgets were leading to the sort of internal crisis that the country now faces”. It is this expediency approach that is the bane of US policymaking. The story of US aid is like providing food and not the skill to earn food. The US preferred and nurtured dictators, right up to Musharaff. I do not think the US did anything towards bringing democracy other than paying lip service. The economic growth because of aid was a chimera and I am sure United States knew that and is supported by the quotes in this article. It is also pertinent to remember that Balochistan, Sindh and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir are mere colonial areas to be exploited by the Punjabi feudals. In this context I am most gratified to note that Mr. Perkovich does not treat Pakistan occupied Kashmir as part of Pakistan. A democratic way has been considered in “blood borders” A merciful euthanasia as mentioned in that article will be the right way forward instead of trying out crackpot ideas like treating two dissimilar nations in area, population, wealth, culture and ethos equally.
It would be nice if Mr. Perkovich remembers a beggar that aims a gun at its own temple and begging will not shoot itself. The safety valve is the threat to the elites’ progeny in the west and their property.
An Enemy Is Not Enough To Make a Nation
Let us correct a misgiving in the light of our knowledge now. (a) There may have been mistakes committed. BUT 1987 elections had NOTHING to do with the uprising that started then. It was a proxy war by Pakistan. Anyway that’s a long dead event. What is the present situation is what counts and Mr. Perkovich seems to avoid that. What are the popular feelings? So what is it that Mr. Perkovich is suggesting? Make a people of which only 2% talk of joining Pakistan be made to join Pakistan? Pray, where is the democracy now? Is it something that can conveniently avoided for an idea with no basis and no chance of success?
Obsessions Are Not Easily Cured
I am sorry Mr. Perkovich, but I must take you on fairly and squarely here. How can you, a learned analyst say that India has “pretensions of superiority”? The factors of superiority are there for all to see. If you meant that this is Pakistan’s view then it is correct. But if it was YOUR observation, it is unfortunate. Same thing applies to the mention of maltreatment of Kashmiris. If in this paragraph you are saying that it is paranoia on the part of Pakistan, the remedy is not to belittle India to bring about an equality paradigm that has no base in reality but to take Pakistanis to a psychiatrist (there are many ways to do that). A country like United States should not be party to a charade that has no reality as base.
Mr. Perkovich says “Deeper sources also fuel the security establishment’s obsession with India. As Pervez Hoodbhoy and Zia Mian have written, there is nostalgia “for a time when Muslims ruled India and were carriers of a great civilization.” There is frustration over the failure to fulfill the hopes of creating a singular national identity and a progressive modern state that were the promise of Pakistan’s creation. India’s recent steady rise as a world power presents a tormenting comparison for Pakistan’s establishment.” For this frustration should India be made to pay? Is that what is being said. They should be told that their way forward is to change. Change for the better. Change the education system; Stop this over emphasis on religion and jihad; move forward to 21st Century from the 7th century to which your mullah-military complex has condemned them to.
The quote from Diplomat and journalist Maleeha Lohdi amply explains what I stated above. If that be so what is the remedy? To make India look bad or beat India? Rather silly is it not? The remedy is to get the people to apsychiatrist and get them treated by removing mullah and jihad and educating them, telling them the truth and making them understand their real place in the scheme of things. Tell them the myths are just myths.
It is true that “the army, has done too little to redress domestic injustices, economic failure, and poor governance.” So what should India do for that? Get beaten up and pressurized to do things that will be liked by a nation of psychotics?
Can Washington Learn?
I fully agree with Mr Perkovich when he says “If Washington is smart, it will stop enabling the Pakistani security establishment’s dysfunctional domination of state and society and truly help Pakistanis who increasingly realize that the source of their ills is internal. To do this, the administration and Congress must accept the bountiful evidence that behaviorist policies of incentives and punishments will not change the army’s psychology and actions. The army’s and ISI’s obsessions are too neurotic to be affected by American techniques of behavior modification. And it would be exceedingly dangerous for anyone to seek to defeat the army and ISI in war.”
I also agree with the statement “The only constructive alternative is democratization. The creation and protection of space for people and groups who offer a more positive identity for Pakistan could enable them to dislodge less constructive actors and reform the state’s mission and actions. The military’s psychology and exploits have put the country into a tailspin from which democratization offers the only rescue.”
What Can Be Done?
I agree that the democratization should be really gradual so that the Abdul in the street is not empowered too fast. BUT before even thinking of that, the Mullah Military combine should be dismantled. Even splitting of the State into different units line independent Sindh and Balochistan must be thought of. All heavy weapons must be removed from the country.
Stop Pushing and Funding the Pakistan Army to Fight America’s Battles
Mr. Perkovich says “The United States would accomplish more by encouraging the Pakistani security establishment to concentrate on defending the people of Pakistan from violence and ensuring that their constitutional and civil rights are protected.” With or without encouragement the military-politician-mullah complex is NOT interested in protecting any one or their rights but their own. It is inconceivable how Mr. Perkovich who has travelled extensively in Pakistan thinks otherwise.
I disagree with the view of the author that “the United States would be wise to continue to make financial and other resources available for the army, the ISI, and the police to contest the operation and recruitment of violent extremists in the country. Such assistance would need to actually be tied to performance, which thus far has not been the case.” What arms is he talking about? Artillery? MBRLs, Frigates? Planes? These are what will be asked for and given FREE of course part of the expenses will be recovered from the sales to India. These will not be useful for the purpose that’s being suggested.
Stop Blocking Pakistani Imports
It would be nice to have imports from Pakistan. India will also help. BUT that needs a guarantee of no terror attacks. And an era of peace in Pakistan. That will not happen in the near future and hence the suggestion is a non-starter.
Stop Over-Indulging India
Ah here comes the crux. Like Christine Fair and Robin Raphael Perkovich seems to have been well treated by Pakistanis. It is natural and necessary for United States to develop relations with India well on the way to be at par with USA economically and even militarily. It is necessary that there be amity and convergence of interest between India and USA in the emerging scenario vis-à-vis China. Mr. Perkovich wants to be India to be “sensitive”!! How is left unsaid. So Pakistan has to be treated so while the treatment is on if it lashes out India should bear it? Under man Mohan Singh that may happen. The reasons being obvious. If a younger more vibrant person who is not constrained by “coalition and other compulsions” come to power maybe it will not happen. BTW what sensitivity did United states show when 9/11 occurred. Even without proof Afghanistan was attacked (I am not saying it was wrong, in fact I applaud it) Give India also the same rights please?
Mr. Perkovich seems to talk about Samjhauta express killing based on a Hindu = Muslim trick played by government of India. But really we all know who did it and why it is not being pursued and under whose persuation. Mr. Perkovich is concerned about 42 Pakistanis killed. Has he no concern for the 1000s of Hindu KASHMIRI PANDITS raped killed and ethnically cleansed from Kashmir valley? Or is that part of the sensitivity that is being demanded by Mr. Perkovich? Is Mr. Perkovich forgetting the “unfortunate loss” of evidence by FBI of the first Bombay blasts? ONE incident is all he has to talk about!! What about the 100s of terrorist attacks orchestrated by ISI that has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths? Not relevant? So 42 = tens of thousands in Perkovich’s mind? Is that the equal value he is talking about? So which way falls the disparity?
Then we deal with two pet theories that our dear Mr. Perkovich also falls prey to. One is the destruction of Babari destruction. A building where prayers have not been held ever since 1934 with a FUNCTIONING temple inside was destroyed. I hope Perkovich does not keep quoting what he head in Karachi and in Slummabad. There was no mosque and even if the building was with muslims they never could hold prayers there as it is forbidden under the Holy Quoran. So the muslims should have gracefully given back the building. As for the case, it is being prosecuted in accordance with Indian law. Mr. Perkovich maynot know we have a system that’s substantially different from American systems. So there will be delays.
Ahhhh Gujarat!! Very very important!! I hope Mr. Perkovich remembers how it all started? Who provoked? He maynot be aware that there are cases being prosecuted at the highest judicial forum of India on the issue and sooner or later the guilty, if any, will be punished. Of course conduct of the 26/11 prosecutions in Pakistan has been very exemplary I hope?
There is a saying “beware of the anger of the patient man” that’s all I have to tell Mr. Perkovich on this. Of course Mr. Perkovich, India has its imperfections just as US and UK and every other nation has. No one is blind to these. Oh!! I did not know it was businesses and traders who should call nations to account. Is that so in united States Mr. Perkovich? I did not know. I have not seen traders going up to the President of United States to discuss matters of State policy.
What is the recent uprising you are talking about Mr. Perkovich? The stone throwing? You know and I know who pays for the stone throwers . Don’t we? And yet we forgive them . What more is needed? Ohhhhhhhhhhh I forgot the so called “intifada” is by 2% of the population. If more than 2% of the US population may want to scede from the United States, what will US Government do? So what should the US Government do? Grant visas to the 2% You are welcome and face the consequences. There will be more Times Square Bombers. While at it let me explain how India is “disregarding the rights and well-being of Kashmiri Muslims” – selling provisions, victuals and utilities in 1940s prices. Free education, minimum taxes, their own laws. How many states in a fedation have all their needs subsidized and maintained? The Kashmiris in POK on the other hand face discrimination but I am sure my friend has not gone there. And TWO PERCENT want to join Pakistan. So what about the desire of the majority? Expendable what?
BTW try upbraiding us!! We will upbraid you also on many a thing. Stop being superiority minded please? Oh. Show solidarity with TWO PERCENT? SO what will the rest NINTY EIGHT PERCENT do? BTW we are NOT buying fighting machines from you. We know all about Trojans and backdoors. India has NOT and WILL NOT exploit the Baloch and Sindh issues as of now. I cannot say what will happen when there is a stronger Government in place. Then things will change unless Pakistan changes now with or without US persuasion. How can we prove the negative? I do not know. It is unknown in jurisprudence.
“This was demonstrated in the energetic American diplomacy to persuade India not to respond militarily to terrorist attacks emanating from Pakistan in 2001 and 2008, and India’s concurrence in that position.” Yes Mr. Perkovich. Please ponder what US did what India did. The difference is obvious. No we did not desist because of fear of US. We did it because we were looking at long term gain and not short term political gain. If “rational perception and analysis are not what drive the Pakistani security establishment’s attitude toward India and U.S” what can we do? We have a saying “There is no use reciting Vedas in the ear of an attacking wild buffalo”. That has to be and will be dealt with appropriately.
Do we really need military means from United States? It is exactly because of CISMOSA and EUA and possible Trojans and backdoors that we do not accept fighting supplies from you. So Pakistan has no need to fear and that’s why there is no need for fear on Pakistan’s side. So US assessments and publications are NOT needed. BUT please stop the FREE Supply of lethal arms to Pakistan. That alone will improve the security scenario all round. It will be good for US also because otherwise this critically ill patient may very well lash out at USA also maybe with not so nice bombs. Then I will be watching to see the understanding approach US will take against Pakistan.
Mr. Perkovich is absolutely right in saying “The United States has never had much sway over Indian policies and it will not gain more as India’s wealth and power grow”. As for what to do in Kashmir we are doing all that need to be done there. I doubt whether we need US’s special ability to “identify” steps. All that is needed for peace in South Asia is stoppage of military patronage by FREE SUPPLY of lethal armaments by anybody here. That step alone will help. We have identified that step for United States so that at a later point of time United States is not at the receiving end of the very same arms.
Oh Please do tell us when we are abusive to ANYONE. Non constructiveness is a matter of perception n’est ce pas? As for speaking the truth, are you telling us normally you do not?
Pause and Reinvent U.S. Assistance
Yes there must be a pause to free supply of lethal armaments for use against India. So the Pakistanis are telling Perkovich to persuade the US Government to just pay the money and let us divide it among us. A nice idea. That will alleviate all the problems because the money will be invested in the west itself.
Yes yes the best agency that you can probably suggest is Jamaat-ud-dawa? They will administer the aid really properly and efficiently and the people will benefit too. It will help reduce the population also by pushing lots of people to india from where they will not return. Double benefit.
Conclusion
Stop all military aid to Pakistan. Prepare a list of the progeny of feudals in the west, and their assets. Demand dismantling of the Pakistan army. Remove all heavy weapons from the country. REQUEST India to give an undertaking that it will not invade the country except for police action in the event of terrorist incursions. Dismantle all Maddrassas. Remove all Mullahs to a “safe haven”. Start proper schools where REAL history is taught. Remove all weapons except in the hands of the police and there will be peace all round.
